Reporting on Opinion Polls in the Mass Media: Statement by the 2025-2027 Committee of the European Survey Research Association

Abstract

The European Survey Research Association (ESRA) has issued a statement expressing concerns over the declining methodological quality of opinion polls and the implications this has on public discourse and democratic processes. Recent technological advances have facilitated the proliferation of online surveys, leading to increased media coverage of opinion polls without adequate scrutiny of their methodological rigor. ESRA highlights the improper use of terms like "representative" in defending poor-quality polls, which often distort the reality of public opinion. This statement is primarily directed at journalists, who play a crucial role in shaping public opinion by reporting survey results. ESRA offers practical recommendations for assessing the quality of opinion polls, emphasizing the importance of probability-based sampling, transparency in data collection modes, motivation behind polls, and meticulous questionnaire design. The statement also warns against non-probability sampling methods, which are susceptible to manipulations by automated bots and are not suitable for validly describing  the public opinion of general populations. Furthermore, the ESRA urges careful consideration of margins of error and the "File Drawer" problem, where extreme or surprising results may overshadow more moderate but accurate findings. By promoting these standards, ESRA aims to support journalists and users of survey data in critically evaluating opinion polls and safeguarding democratic integrity.