Predicting Survey Nonresponse with Registry Data in Sweden between 1992 to 2023: Cohort Replacement or a Deteriorating Survey Climate?

Abstract

Declining response rates have remained a major worry for survey research in the 21st century. In the past decades, the same decline in people’s willingness to participate in surveys (i.e., response propensities) has been seen in virtually all Western nations. Even more worrisome, declining response propensities may increase the risk of extensive nonresponse bias. Therefore, a better understanding of which factors are associated with survey nonresponse and its impact on nonresponse bias is paramount for any survey researcher interested in accurate statistical inferences. Knowing which factors relate to low response propensities enables appropriate models of nonresponse weights and aids the identification of which groups to tailor efforts to for turning non-respondents into respondents. This manuscript draws from previous theories and research on survey nonresponse and investigates nonresponse bias, both cross-sectionally and over time, in two time-series cross-sectional studies administered in Sweden (the National SOM Surveys 1992-2022 and the Swedish National Election Study 2022). Capitalizing on available registry data on all sampled persons and their corresponding neighborhood-level contextual data, a meta-analytical analysis of eight years of data collection finds that educational attainment, age, and migrant status are among the strongest predictors of response propensities. However, contextual factors—such as living in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods—also predict willingness to participate in surveys. Furthermore, utilizing the three decades of data, the declining response rates and growing non-response is shown to have been wholly attributable to a deteriorating survey climate rather than birth cohort replacement or immigration patterns.