Modeling uncertainty, unawareness, and underspecification among Structural Causal Models

Abstract

We argue that linguistic communication of information about causal relations frequently involves epistemic states of not only uncertainty about, but also unawareness of causal facts. We propose a simple model of Causal Beliefs with Unawareness (CBU), which augments Structural Causal Models with additional structure to model both uncertainty and unawareness.