@article{Thurner_Mauerer_Bort_Klima_Küchenhoff_2020, title={Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections}, volume={14}, url={https://ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/view/7628}, DOI={10.18148/srm/2020.v14i5.7628}, abstractNote={<p>What have been the underlying voter shifts that led to the victory of the Con-<br>servative Party in the 2015 British general election – against all predictions by<br>pollsters? Analyses of voter transitions based on (online) surveys and recall ques-<br>tions are plagued by sampling and response biases, whereas aggregate data analyses<br>are suspect of the well-known ecological fallacy. We propose a systematic statistical<br>combination of individual and aggregate data at the constituency level to identify<br>regional electoral shifts between the 2010 to 2015 British general elections, with a<br>particular focus on England. Large-scale individual data collected by the British<br>Election Study Internet Panel (BESIP) allow us to locate more than 28,000 respon-<br>dents in their constituencies. We estimate transitions based on a recently developed<br>Bayesian Hierarchical Hybrid Multinomial Dirichlet (HHMD) model. We discover<br>a clear deviance from pure RxC ecological inference and from pure online panel-<br>based estimations of transition matrices. Convergence diagnostics corroborate the<br>superiority of the hybrid models.</p>}, number={5}, journal={Survey Research Methods}, author={Thurner, Paul W. and Mauerer, Ingrid and Bort, Maxim and Klima, André and Küchenhoff, Helmut}, year={2020}, month={Sep.}, pages={461–476} }